“While the overall market will appear to rebound somewhat in 2011, the underlying constraints to growth in developed markets are stronger than ever – including the impact of major patent expiries and payer mechanisms to limit drug spending,” said IMS Senior Vice President Murray Aitken. “We expect the pharmerging markets to continue their rapid expansion next year and remain strong sources of growth, and also see the potential for several significant innovative treatment options that are becoming available for patients in areas that include metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis and acute coronary syndrome.”
Other highlights from the IMS report:
- Emerging markets (or pharmerging markets as IMS calls them) will drive the majority of the industry growth. The 17 pharmerging markets are expected to grow 15-17% to nearly $180 billion in 2011. China along will reach $50 billion (that’s an awful lot of shark fins).
- The United States is still the largest global market, but growth is expected to just outpace inflation – to about $330 billion.
- There will be a number of significant generic expirations in 2011 in the United States, including: Pfizer's Lipitor, BMS and Sanofi-Aventis' Plavix, Eli Lilly's Zyprexa and J&J's Levaquin. These drugs have $17 billion in annual sales.
- In the United States, health plans will continue to use pre-authorizations and cost sharing provisions to drive down drug costs.
